The Fed just raised rates again.
The fast read for Bend buyers and sellers.
The Fed raised its benchmark rate 0.25% in September 2026. Chair Kevin Warsh says inflation
needs to move “clearly and at sufficient speed” toward the 2% target before hikes stop — and at
3.6% PCE, we’re not there. The 30-year fixed sits at 7.28%.
Fed projections put 2% inflation no earlier than 2027. In Bend, home values are holding.
This is a patience-and-strategy market, not a panic market.
Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS · Federal Reserve · September 2026.
The Fed hiked 0.25% this week, and Chair Warsh didn’t soften the message: inflation is still
too high, the economy is strong enough to absorb more hikes, and the bar for stopping is high.
With PCE inflation stuck at 3.6% and no projected path to the 2% target until 2027, significant
rate relief in 2026 is not the base case. If you’re waiting for 5s or 6s, that’s a 2027+ story.
Three forces are driving rates higher beyond just the Fed: tariffs are keeping goods prices
elevated; Middle East conflict is keeping oil up; and AI infrastructure bond issuance from major
tech companies is competing with mortgage-backed securities, pushing mortgage yields independently
of Fed policy. The result is a rate environment that’s stickier than it looks on the surface.
At 7.28%, a buyer putting 20% down on a $900,000 Bend home pays roughly $4,900/month in
principal and interest. At 6.0% — what many buyers were hoping for — that drops to ~$4,315.
That $585/month gap is why purchase applications have fallen hard above 7%, and why the pool
of comfortable buyers is smaller right now.
What to do with this if you’re buying or selling
Work the rate, don’t wait for it
- 7.28% is real and it’s not dropping in 2026 — plan around it
- Less competition right now than any point since 2019
- Rate buydowns and seller concessions are back — ask for them
- You’re buying the home, not the rate — refinance later when it moves
Price sharp. Prepare well.
- Buyers are doing the math hard — overpriced listings sit
- Offering a rate buydown can be more effective than a price cut
- NW Bend values are holding — limited inventory is doing the work
- Condition matters more when buyers have less margin
The Bend-specific reality: this market skews toward lifestyle and relocation buyers — many from
California, Seattle, and Texas — who often bring equity from a prior sale. They feel the rate
environment, but they’re not rate-dependent the way a first-time buyer is. Home values in
NW Bend, Discovery West, NW Crossing, and Summit West are holding. Days on market are longer,
but prices haven’t collapsed. Work the market, don’t fear it.
Two questions people are asking me right now
than 2027. Buyers waiting for that moment will face more competition when it comes. Buyers who
move now face a quieter market, more negotiating room, and the same Bend. The math works if you’re
buying for the long term. Call or text me at 541-728-3668 to run
your specific numbers.
fall hard above 7% — but sellers still have equity and prices haven’t corrected. What I’m seeing
is that correctly-priced homes still move; overpriced listings sit until they adjust. This is not
a collapse, it’s a calibration.
Want the full breakdown — including the macro factors, the full pros/cons, and my detailed read on
NW Bend specifically? Read the full blog article here.
rate hike means for you?
Happy to walk through your numbers — buying, selling, or figuring out timing. No pressure. Tiffany Vasquez · Top 1% NW Bend · Top 5 NW Crossing · Top 3% Bend (2025 COAR MLS).